
Glitchless lies! 

01072011, 05:10 PM

#1

Guest

Glitchless lies!
Hey y'all. I sent an email to Jeff bringing this up, but he doesn't seem to want to respond, so I'll have to put it in the public forums so people can see wherein the problem lies. (Link goodness on the bolded words, so you can see Jeff himself stating things that apparently aren't true.)
Jeff, you've stated that accuracy is based off of your stat vs. the stat of your opponent (followed by other factors  see, Assurance, Precision, Trained Eye, et al). Doubling your opponents' agility (or agility + CNT, or....whatever) would cut their Base Miss Rate in half (as per the level difference; for my purposes, I used Black enemies because...well, YOU said what the Base Miss Rate was, so I didn't even have to calculate it).
Using the information you've provided us, if I were using a Crushing Weapon against a black enemy, then I would have to effectively double their Agility to cut their Base Miss Rate from 50% to 25%. This, coupled with my precision rating, *should* provide a 23.17% Modified Miss Rate. Thus, in order to test this, I have 839 Strength and 120 Dexterity, a total of 959, average of 479.5. I would wager this is decidedly higher than necessary to double my opponents' relevant stat/stataverage.
Here's the problem. In the thousands upon thousands of numbers I've crunched, I've NEVER seen a Modified Miss Rate higher than 30%, and sometimes saw it as low as 3536%. Would you care to address the situation, please, and explain what is going on? Again, I'm not one of these whiny little fools on the boards that ran 45 fights and started crying foul...I've literally run DAYS worth of data crunching against these numbers. You've said people didn't have a large enough datapool to draw from to provide these conclusions...I guarantee you, I have enough data. So I want to know what is up with the numbers I have been producing, and why is it they vary GREATLY with the data you have directly stated.
Either you lied before, or you're vaunted combat system is seriously out of whack. Please feel free to make some corrections. Or respond to my emails. Whichever.



01072011, 06:58 PM

#2

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Glitchless is offline
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You have linked some threads where general comments were made about accuracy stats, however, I'm not seeing where it was stated that there is a base hit rate of 50% against black mobs or that having double the dex of your opponent's agi would exactly halve the chance to miss them. In a previous patch a levelbased innate chance to miss (not to be confused with a base hit % which is seperate from this) black mobs was reduced to 50% down from a much higher number.
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Computing the probability that at least one of the following events will occur:
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01072011, 06:59 PM

#3

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Weirdgus is offline
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So where is this "data" ? And where do you get those 50% to 25% numbers from ?






01072011, 07:03 PM

#4

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drumboardist
Using the information you've provided us, if I were using a Crushing Weapon against a black enemy, then I would have to effectively double their Agility to cut their Base Miss Rate from 50% to 25%. This, coupled with my precision rating, *should* provide a 23.17% Modified Miss Rate. Thus, in order to test this, I have 839 Strength and 120 Dexterity, a total of 959, average of 479.5. I would wager this is decidedly higher than necessary to double my opponents' relevant stat/stataverage.

Ahhhh .... you're making a fair few assumptions there
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
With a base chance to hit of about 75% when your DEX is equal to the opponents average CNT+AGI you'll hit 3/4 times. Lets say you double your DEX which and that halves your chance of missing from 25% to 12.5% (this is not the exact formula, just an example) taking your chance to hit to 87.5% or 7/8... you're still going to be able to kill hard creatures if you have good gear with either rating and you're not going to see obvious changes unless you're actually tracking the statistics of 100's of fights.

Please see the section in bold.
In addition, Glitchless states that the opponents AGI and CNT both play a significant part  do you know what these figures actually are ?



01072011, 07:07 PM

#5

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I don't see any lying going on here, thread title is not accurate






01072011, 07:10 PM

#6

Guest

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
You have linked some threads where general comments were made about accuracy stats, however, I'm not seeing where it was stated that there is a base hit rate of 50% against black mobs...

Oh? " ...the base hit rate on black mobs was changed from 0% to 50%" Is this not your words? Clarification?
Quote:
...or that having double the dex of your opponent's agi would exactly halve the chance to miss them.

Very well then. " With a base chance to hit of about 75% when your DEX is equal to the opponents average CNT+AGI you'll hit 3/4 times. Lets say you double your DEX which and that halves your chance of missing from 25% to 12.5% (this is not the exact formula, just an example) taking your chance to hit to 87.5% or 7/8." Similarly, "In Nodiatis it's based on a ratio of your Dex divided by your enemy's Agi and then the other skill factors are computed on top of that. You have to play stats by ear." So it's not just a singularity, it's relevant stat vs. relevant stat. Finally, " ...the damage is based on your enemy's INT vs. your CNT."
All these tell me that having double your opponents' relevant stat will cut in half the Base Miss Rate. Which you stated before as being changed to 50%. Your quotes. I'm working based off of a Base Miss Rate (yes, the levelbased one  X rate for Whites, Y for Yellows, C for Oranges, etc., all the way up to Blacks). Which, as you just now said....
Quote:
In a previous patch a levelbased innate chance to miss (not to be confused with a base hit % which is seperate from this) black mobs was reduced to 50% down from a much higher number.

This is what I'm working off of. That the BMR is going to be 50%, and yet I'm not returning numbers reflecting this.






01072011, 07:24 PM

#7

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drumboardist
Oh? " ...the base hit rate on black mobs was changed from 0% to 50%" Is this not your words? Clarification?
Very well then. " With a base chance to hit of about 75% when your DEX is equal to the opponents average CNT+AGI you'll hit 3/4 times. Lets say you double your DEX which and that halves your chance of missing from 25% to 12.5% (this is not the exact formula, just an example) taking your chance to hit to 87.5% or 7/8." Similarly, "In Nodiatis it's based on a ratio of your Dex divided by your enemy's Agi and then the other skill factors are computed on top of that. You have to play stats by ear." So it's not just a singularity, it's relevant stat vs. relevant stat. Finally, " ...the damage is based on your enemy's INT vs. your CNT."
All these tell me that having double your opponents' relevant stat will cut in half the Base Miss Rate. Which you stated before as being changed to 50%. Your quotes. I'm working based off of a Base Miss Rate (yes, the levelbased one  X rate for Whites, Y for Yellows, C for Oranges, etc., all the way up to Blacks). Which, as you just now said....
This is what I'm working off of. That the BMR is going to be 50%, and yet I'm not returning numbers reflecting this.

You are correct that it was mistated that the base hit rate on black mobs is 50%, it has been corrected in the original statement. The 50% is referring to an extra chance to miss rate applied due to level differences.
The formula examples given are just to demonstrate a rough idea of how the system works, it is not the actual formula.
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Computing the probability that at least one of the following events will occur:
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01072011, 07:25 PM

#8

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drumboardist
All these tell me that having double your opponents' relevant stat will cut in half the Base Miss Rate.

Lets see the post where this is explicitly said, not something that you have inferred from various posts (some of which are 2+ yrs old, with multiple patches between). In the section you have posted, Glitchless specifically states that this is NOT the exact formula.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
Lets say you double your DEX which and that halves your chance of missing from 25% to 12.5% (this is not the exact formula, just an example)







01072011, 07:28 PM

#9

Guest

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
You are correct that it was mistated that the base hit rate on black mobs is 50%, it has been corrected in the original statement. The 50% is referring to an extra chance to miss rate applied due to level differences.
The formula examples given are just to demonstrate a rough idea of how the system works, it is not the actual formula.

Okay, now we're making headway.
I understand that the secondary sections weren't you directly giving us the calculations (that'd be silly), but you were giving examples of how it works. Ergo, one could use the same idea to calculate what the BMRs were for various levelranges of enemies, n'est pas?
So, assuming that Black enemies have a BMR of 50% (yes, I'm still assuming that, you DID say it went from 100% > 50%), it would stand to reason that, using your logic, doubling my opponents' agility with my combined STR/DEX would cut the BMR in half? And this secondary number (The Modified Miss Rate, MMR) would THEN be modified further by things like Precision, Assurance,Weapon Accuracy, etc? Am I correct on all of this thus far?
Or, if I'm not, is it strictly the 50% for blacks (still)? Or is it the doubling of Melee vs. Enemies' Agility? Or is it the further modification of the Miss Rate through Precision/Assurance/Weapon Acc.?






01072011, 07:36 PM

#10

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StormGuardian is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
You are correct that it was mistated that the base hit rate on black mobs is 50%, it has been corrected in the original statement. The 50% is referring to an extra chance to miss rate applied due to level differences.
The formula examples given are just to demonstrate a rough idea of how the system works, it is not the actual formula.

So if there's a 75% base chance to hit, for sure against white mobs, but since blacks aren't 50%, i'd assume it's 75% for all mobs?(assuming normal accuracy weapon and equal dex vs agi or cnt/agi average?). Then blacks(+5s) give an added 50% chance to miss, as you said, added...multiplicatively...that means base hit rate on a +5 mob is 37.5%
Is that more accurate?
Also, I'm just gonna throw this out there and get flamed for it...but you people who have done nothing with stats/test/calcs for this...just...read, don't respond. Thank you.
Last edited by StormGuardian; 01072011 at 07:41 PM..



01072011, 07:41 PM

#11

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The base hit rate is 75%. A black mob has a 50% extra miss rate which would make it around a 37.5% chance to hit him without taking into account stats and skills. Note that it does not take into account the skills/runes of the creature either. That's really all that I can clarify without getting into actual formulas which is not our aim.
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Computing the probability that at least one of the following events will occur:
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01072011, 07:41 PM

#12

Guest

Okay, so what Storm is proposing (and interpreting from what you've said), I *am* mixing terms into a whole convoluted mess.
Base Hit Rate  Whatever your normal accuracy is going to be, modified by any pluses you've accumulated (Precision, Assurance, etc).
Base Miss Rate  The percentile that your hitrate is then multiplied against to determine the effective number of Misses you'll see against said Color of Enemy.
Ahh, clarification of terms. If this *is* what it is...wow. That'll solve everything.



01072011, 07:43 PM

#13

Guest

Okay, awesomesauce, Jeffster. Whatever your BHR is, versus an opponents' BMR. Now, to calculate where the extra Hits/Misses come from in relation to secondary modifications, and I can die a happy man.
Seriously? Thank you, Jeff. I take back calling you a liar, seriously I do. You can, like, lock this thread or something.



01082011, 12:00 AM

#14

Guest

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?!?!? for example, explain how you get up your hit rate vs +5 mobs to say 65% or better using runes/skills/breakdancing moves.



01082011, 01:26 AM

#15

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Cinder, don't fret...all will be explained...soonish hopefully. We're working out a few twinks, but are pretty close
Glitch is the modifier for accuracy capped at x2? Aka...you said, "Lets say you double your DEX which and that halves your chance of missing from 25% to 12.5%"
Iif you had quadruple the DEX is it possible to cut that 25% to 6.25%? With the numbers we have now, it's pretty accurate for all colors and varying accuracies on weapons(generally within 12%, can be accounted for by randomness and possible runes, as no sample will be expected to be dead on with 0% error), but only works if this is capped at x2, or halving the missrate. If we don't, the numbers are a large margin off...so...is there another x2 cap set in place, much like the reg cap was set?
I or Drum can provide numbers if needed.



01082011, 05:34 AM

#16

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Storm, all I can say is that there is no cap. The gains are somewhat logarithmic at the upper end, however, so it could seem like some sort of hard cap is in place when in reality there isn't.
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Computing the probability that at least one of the following events will occur:
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01082011, 04:50 PM

#17

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Very understandable that at a point, it would be unnoticable of a difference...but against black mobs with ~30% miss rates(as tested and seen)...there should still be a noticable increase, even with str+dex around 1000(500 average, somewhere between x2 and x3 mob stats for lvl 8667 mobs). With a x2 cap hit %s are almost dead on...without it I'm getting a ~22% miss rate, not ~30%. So something's missing
Just to verify a few things you've said in the past:
Assurance rune, epic sleeve + hit chance, and precision all count as different checks correct? (as in your sig)
Weap accuracy would increase the base 75% hit rate first i would think...b/c that base hit rate is based on weapon accuracy? You said 34.5% at one point...can you be any more specific or do we have to figure that one out too?
I'll keep fiddling w/the numbers and see what I come up with, a response to those to clarifications would be appreciated.



01102011, 03:03 AM

#18

Guest

sooo does this count for pets and gems or just weapons? just curious



01102011, 05:04 AM

#19

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For pets it is the same, for gems obviously it is different. They have a greater chance to miss based on level differences but do more damage vs. black creatures in return.
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Computing the probability that at least one of the following events will occur:
P(a or b ... or z) = 1  P(!a and !b ... and !z)
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01112011, 02:49 AM

#20

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I tested some of this stuff a very long time ago (the game was probably less than a month old). I didn't keep the data, but the impression I had was that the hit curve was very nonlinear with a fairly well defined knee or threshold.
To simplify it and only look at dex vs agi:
with very low dex, adding additional dex would result in only a very small increase in hit rate. As you approached the "knee" of the curve, small amounts of additional dex would result in fairly large increases in hit rate. As dex continued to increase beyond a second knee, it would again have little affect on hit rate.
To put it another way. With a base hit rate of 75%, it would take a relatively small increase in dex to go from 70% to 75% hit rate. But it would take a MUCH larger increase in dex to go from 30% to 35% or from 85% to 90%.
My tests were done at lower levels where I think the curve would be more easily recognized. You not only have less skills affecting it, but changes in stats are a higher percentage change. (i.e. a 5 point increase in dex at 100 points is 5% vs a 5 point increase at 500 points is 1%. So just a few dings in melee could potentially make a noticeable difference in hit rate)



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